Betting Tips and Blog
THE MACRO SPORTS BETTING STRATEGY WE ARE PROUD OF
For serious sports investors here's a strategy I have employed for the last 10 years: Research and keep an inventory of people or companies that are successful LONG term sports bettors. Make sure they have been a winning player in aggregate for at least 3 years. Sample size is key. Anyone can win over a period of 6 months to a year. After multiple years the sample size starts becoming large enough to evaluate if one is capable of long term success.
Once you have identified a few individuals who fit a "professional" profile (they are few and far between)...do what ever you can whether it be paid or free picks to tail them. By "tail" I mean do EXACTLY everything they do (unit sizes, specific bets etc) and make that individual one "system". Accumulate a portfolio of "systems" to create a sports investing "mutual fund."
The purpose of this, as all successful investors know, is diversification and minimization of risk of ruin. That is to say, if 1 or 2 respected systems have a bad year, hopefully others will make sure that you don't have a losing year in aggregate.
We definitely humbly propose ESA as one of your systems. We are also very happy to recommend other respected sports investors. We are not threatened by other winning players, for they are our collaborators and models we learn from. Those who mislead and fabricate results, giving the rest of us a bad name, are the true threat. Feel free to contact us for our list of trusted sports bettors.
THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT OF SPORTS BETTING BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
Step 1: Choose a bank roll size. It can be any amount you wish. We recommend starting with at least $1500-$3000.
Step 2: We highly recommend you stick to a "unit" size that is 2-3% or less of your total bankroll. In the Step 1 example your unit per bet size must be no more than $25-$100. It doesn't matter what your unit size is. Some professionals bet $100/game, and some recreational players bet $2000/game. Your unit size has zero relation to how sharp or square a bettor you are. It has more to do with your financial situation.
Step 3: Re-evaluate your bankroll size from time to time. We recommend after you've completed steps 1 and 2, that you set a timeline where you stick to your unit size. For example, we at ESA keep everything set in stone for 3 months at a time (quarterly). Then and only then do we consider changing our bankroll size and corresponding unit size.
The purpose of these aforementioned ratios is to minimize the risk of ruin. ( Your bankroll going to $0.)
I always remember the following quote when I feel the urge to break this 2-3% rule on a game that is a lock. (no game is a f****ing lock!)
"Your bankroll/bet size/ unit % is the only buffer between enjoying your betting experience vs agonizing over it"
What to expect on your sports betting journey with ESA
We post +EV picks. BUT! We are going to lose 45 or 46 times out of 100! That's a lot of losing! We also bet a lot of games. I know, the "experts" tell you not to bet a lot of games. We bet +EV games, so the more games we bet, the more money we win (we think the math works out with that even if the "experts" don't agree).
The best advice we can give you is to keep your unit size small (2% of bankroll to start) and bet every single play (or close to it) at the exact unit proportions posted. We send out 1 to 4 picks emails a day: each email should take about 5 minutes to data enter into your online sportsbook. This "job" is supposed to take you 5 to 20 minutes a day to earn $1000+ income/month depending on your unit size. Don't watch the games! I know, easier said than done: you don't have enough time in a day to live and watch the games. Ideally you just review the picks performance before bedtime each day. It should be like distributing "monopoly money". If it feels too stressful, your unit size is too big! Remember, we are waging a giant sample size WAR of small bets on the sportsbooks. Emotions are unhelpful during this process.
Try to Bet Every Play: See our "Spread Change Guarantee":
If for example, we post a -2 on a game, and it moves to -3 before you log on, still bet it. Contrary to what many “experts” advise, we are looking for the correct side to bet, and not overly obsessed with value (although both are nice to have).
Real world variance vs what we perceive variance to be
Understand that your ledger won’t look like this: WLWLWLWLWW. What a stress free world that would be! Rather, real world variance looks more like this: LLLLLWWWWWW(no kidding!) If your unit size is too big, you will inevitably go broke near the bottom of a “valley” and not have enough capital to take advantage of the coming upswing. Bottom line: keep your unit size small enough so that you can bet every bet and ride out bad variance without a sweat!
What to look for when choosing a handicapping service:
Know what is real and what is fake, don't get scammed out of your hard earned money!
Many giant red flags in this "tout" handicapper writeup:
1) Notice the giant sample size listed, with an average win percentage of approximately 63%. At 1.91 odds? Doesn't say. If so, that's a lie. How do I know? The last time I checked, nobody has magic powers. If it's at lower odds, then it means nothing. You could theoretically lose money winning 60% at lower odds.
2) No reference to units profit. Units are the only way sports betting can be measured. It's a universal measurement for handicapper performance!
3) He has won "numerous awards from independent sports monitoring services". Again, means nothing, no specifics.
Don't be fooled by this writeup of "hot garbage". This type of tout makes transparent and honest professionals with real credentials look bad!
THE REALITY OF OUR ONLINE SPORTS BETTING LANDSCAPE
The good news is there are many Sportsbooks who welcome winning players!
Unfortunately there are still some predatory Sportsbooks who's business model is banning winning players while faking concern about the problem gambling of the rest. See the redacted emails below.