Baseball Stadium


Welcome to Equity Sports Analytics:

transparency - math - results

I am a retired professional poker player turned sports bettor in 2010.  My co-founder is a computer programmer. This website is for those sports bettors who are disillusioned with all the false claims and lack of accountability in the sports handicapping industry. 


I used to sign up for sports handicapping services when I started betting seriously in 1999.  I had a lot of complaints! We have attempted to address and fix these complaints; number one among them:


These handicappers would tell me; because they had watched sports all their lives, that they could deliver winning picks with their "intuition and experience". When the picks lost, they would continue to tell new clients they were consistently winning. They would rarely post lines that I could actually get, and their records were either built on these false postings, or manipulated, or both.

           ESA is unique, in that we ONLY use math and empirical data and NEVER gut intuition when betting on sports. 

At ESA we use the same math principles from poker to find the +EV (expected value) that exists in the sports betting market.  This isn't a "get rich quick scheme".  This is realistic, unsexy, math.  I have been averaging 54% (at 1.91 odds) on my picks for the past 10 years. For reference, a sports bettor must achieve a  52.35% cover rate (at 1.91 odds) to break even.  Since 2006, I have turned a profit in every single calendar year (poker 2006-2009; sports betting 2010 to present).  I painstakingly document every play both in handwritten form and on an Excel spreadsheet.  When you sign up with ESA, you will start receiving +EV picks that will earn you a steady long-term income.  You have my word. 


Skeptical?  I would be.  99% of both bettors and sports information services lose.  Fact.  If someone tells you they cover at a 57% rate or higher,  they are lying.   57% long term at 1.91 odds is impossible.   (We've all seen 60%+ advertised countless times)   The sweet spot cover rate for a professional sports bettor is 53-55%.

Initially, a nightmare,  is now a badge of honor  


But don't take my word for it:  I have been labeled a  "professional" and "non-desirable client" by 2 online bookmakers: stating they would no longer take bets from me as an "internal business decision by their trading teams".  (Check out the screenshots in The "Betting Tips" section)  To clarify,  my account was terminated for placing bets according to stated house rules whilst earning a consistent income.   Nothing illegal, fraudulent, or untoward.  I was allowed to cash out and keep all of my profits.   Scary to think that some fickle bookmakers will take their ball and go home if a client starts winning the game.   But I digress....

6 to 10 years ago, getting banned from my familiar bookmakers was a major blow to my income stream.  But the modern era has ushered in an "enlightenment" to the industry. Widespread legalization has brought in a plethora of competition to empower bettors and broaden options. I do most of my business now at betting exchanges and Pinnacle because they welcome and don't limit professional action. 

2008 Poker Leaderboard
2009 Poker Leaderboard
Behind the scenes number crunching

It turns out, this was the best thing that could have happened to me. The new wave of online bookmakers offer less "juice" on sides and totals,  plus a much wider selection of bet types to hunt down that coveted +EV.  Ask your current or previous sports information service if they have been limited or suspended from one of their previous bookmakers? There is a 99% chance the answer is no. If they are betting at one of the traditional online bookmakers, they are either losing money or not making enough for the bookmaker to consider them a serious threat.


Still skeptical?  I still would be.  

Sign up for the free trial and follow the picks and results.  Or check in once a month or every few months to see how we are performing. No rush. We know we have to earn your trust and wouldn't have it any other way.

Warm Regards,